On 27th April 2005, Minister of Transport Peijs announced the road deaths for 2004. Compared with 2003, there was a striking and welcome decrease of 19%; from 1088 to 881. What was even more remarkable was the fact that, during the last few years, no notable measures had been taken that could explain such a decrease. SWOV expects that the number of deaths will decrease even more if some of the measures are taken for which it is very reasonable to assume that they will have a positive effect on road safety.
To get a good insight into road safety developments, it is much better to study a longer period, and not just look at the previous year. According to current data, 2003 was a relatively unsafe year and 2004 a safe one. Viewed over a longer period, the conclusion is justifiable that the decreasing trend has continued for a number of years, with the exception of 2003. However, the decrease in 2004 was larger than was expected from the recent trend.
The data shows that the decrease has taken place in all ages, all modes of transport, and all road types. SWOV will carry out a further analysis to find out what the explanations are, and compare the latest data with the trend of the last few years. A time series analysis of at least five years is carried out every two years. We expect the analysis of the latest data to be ready this summer. A longer time series analysis shows clearer the developments in the various crash and casualty variables. We know from previous analyses that that since 1992, the Sustainably Safety policy has had a positive effect. For example, increasing the number of 30 km/hour and 60 km/hour zones is one of the measures following the Sustainable Safety approach.
Recent policy measures have been taken, of which we will have to wait some time before seeing what their effect has been. In the last number of SWOV's Dutch language quarterly, its director Fred Wegman pointed to the still uncertain effects of the increased decentralization since early 2005. The less safe roads, with 50 and 80 km/hour speed limits, have a special place here. SWOV has argued for a road safety agreement to support the implementation of road safety policy in the regions after the decentralization. Such an agreement, or partial agreements, involves inviting participating organizations (governments, police, social pressure groups, private sector) to do everything possible to make the traffic in their region even safer.
SWOV is of the opinion that a lot more crashes can be avoided and that we also know what should be done to prevent them. That is why there will be a sequel to the successful Sustainable Safety formula. This will be presented this autumn and will be called Sustainable Safety version 2.0. This version looks to the future and offers applications that fit the latest developments in practice.
SWOV still regards it as being possible to lower the number of road deaths even more by using measures in the following fields:
- review of the policy on speed in which the emphasis lies on safe and credible speed limits that lead to driving speeds conform the local traffic situation and the road layout;
- continue making roads and streets more sustainably safe, especially those of the secondary road network, because they must unburden the main road network;
- collision-friendlier vehicle design;
- a graduated driving licence for novice drivers;
- drug use limits in traffic;
- introduction of an alcohol lock for notorious drinkers.