Positions

SWOV position on proposed demerit points system law

SWOV expects that the road safety effect of the proposed demerit points system will be slight, if the level of police control remains the same. The introduction of this demerit point system will probably improve road safety during its first year. However, if the chance of getting a demerit point is small, this effect will quite rapidly disappear.

In addition, the proposal of the ministers of transport and justice (2x yellow = red) is aimed at a small group of road users who are guilty of serious traffic offences. It is doubtful if this group will be influenced by a demerit points system or licence suspension. There could even be unintended side effects.

SWOV bases this expectation on the assessment studies of the road safety effects of the individual working elements of demerit points systems. These effects: deterrence, selection, and correction through education, are described in greater detail in (the Summary of) the literature study entitled 'The road safety effect of demerit points systems; a literature study' (R-2004-2). During the introduction of a normal demerit points system, and with a constant enforcement level, you can only count on saving a few (1-5) road deaths a year.

Difference between proposed law and normal demerit points system
The Government's proposed demerit points system differs from a normal one. It is simpler than those in neighbouring countries: it is aimed exclusively at serious traffic offences, and it only concerns the deterrence element.

In short, the proposed demerit points system is a matter of automatic licence suspension if a licence holder is stopped for a second time for a serious offence within 5 years. Most offences, however serious (e.g. driving more than 50 km/h too fast) are not penalized in this system.

The following are regarded as serious offences:

• causing a serious crash,
• drastically exceeding the alcohol limit,
• serious speeding offences.

If the licence suspension is longer than 1 year, the driving licence is no longer valid and a new driving test must be taken.

Slight long-term road safety effect
There will be a large effect especially during the first year after the introduction (initial effect) because drivers overestimate the chance of losing their driving licence. This effect occurred in France and Ireland, but gradually ebbed away.

Contrary to the ministry's estimation, SWOV expects that the long-term road safety effect of the proposed demerit points system will be less than that of a normal system. Redelmeier et al. (2003) found that the crash rate of motorists did not decrease during the month after 'being caught' if it only concerned a minor offence that did not result in any demerit points. The crash rate did halve during this month if it concerned offences of average severity (after about four such offences one would have exceeded the points limit). After this month, the effect had disappeared. If it concerned serious offences with many points (after two such offences one would have exceeded the points limit), the decrease in crash rate during the month after being caught was slight and not statistically significant. This appears to show that the small group of serious offenders do not care much about the consequences of a demerit points system, and just carry on driving. This could be because the chance of being caught is possibly smaller in the Netherlands than in the Canadian province of Ontario where the study of Redelmeier et al. took place. If this really is the case, further research is necessary.

Possible negative effects
There is a chance that the intended proposed demerit points system has negative side effects viz. driving without a licence and hit-and-run driving.

Side effect: driving without a licence
If a punishment (in this case, not being allowed to drive) hurts the driver a lot because he/she is used to doing it, but the control on compliance of the punishment is small, one will soon be inclined to ignore it. Research abroad shows that in countries where there is a demerit points system, 30-40% of the motorists continue to drive after incurring a (temporary) licence suspension. People sometimes think that those who drive illegally do so more carefully because they do not want to be conspicuous. It is possible that they drive slightly safer, but not as safe as motorists with a valid driving licence.

Side effect: hit-and-run driving
Another undesirable effect of a strict demerit points system is that the tendency to hit-and-run after causing a crash will increase. In order to prevent this happening and to ensure that the effect of the demerit points system increases, the chance of being stopped after an offence must be greater. This inevitably means having more visible police around. However, we must ensure that policemen/-women should not only concentrate on the small group of serious offenders, but also on the much larger group of less-serious offenders.

Relation to other measures needs more attention
The 2x yellow = red variant of the demerit points system aims to prevent repeated traffic offences. It is not completely clear how this relates to other measures aimed at recidivists, such as the Educational Alcohol Measure and the alcohol lock. It is because drivers who are alcoholics tend to continue to drive when their licence has been suspended, that an alcohol lock is expected to have some effect. According to the draft text of the law, an alcohol lock programme can only be started after someone has passed the driving test again. This means having to wait. The alcohol lock programme is meant to correct the undesirable behaviour (drink-driving) of alcohol drivers without limiting their freedom to travel or endangering their career. As a licence suspension often does.

Passing the driving test again
After having one's licence suspended, one has to take the driving test again and one must meet the requirement of bodily and mental suitability (demonstrable psychiatric disorders). However, many serious offences are the results of certain attitudes or lack of social skills (e.g. anti-social behaviour). At this moment in time, selection is not for this. The serious offender can just pass the driving test again without behaviour/social skills having improved.

• The deterrence effect of the proposed law can be improved if the subjective chance of being caught is increased.
• If the police stop motorists more than they do now, the road safety effect of the intended demerit points system will increase, and the chance of unfavourable side effects (e.g. hit-and-run driving and driving without a valid licence) will be reduced.
• When someone looses his/her driving licence because of the demerit points system, we should ensure that the selection requirements after passing the driving test include demonstrating that the causes of unsafe driving behaviour have disappeared.
• When introducing the intended demerit points system, we must prevent other measures against recidivism (e.g. the Educational Alcohol Measure) losing their effect.

Leidschendam, 17 December 2004

Also read SWOV's position on the effect of demerit points in general

References [the SWOV report has a summary in English]

Vlakveld, W.P. (2004). Het effect van puntenstelsels op de verkeersveiligheid. R-2004-2. SWOV, Leidschendam

Redelmeier, D.A., Tibshirani, R.J. & Evans, L. (2003) Traffic-law enforcement and risk of death from motor-vehicle crashes: case-crossover study. In: The Lancet Vol. 361, June 28 2003, p. 2177-2182