Positions

SWOV expects the introduction of a demerit points system for all driver licence holders in the Netherlands to have an only modest positive road safety effect. This will mainly be a short-term effect during the first year after introduction.

If demerit points are not only imposed when the offender is stopped, but also for offences that are registered on license plate, a greater and more lasting positive effect may be possible. Per year, an estimated 10 road fatalities can be saved, this effect will continue for several years. However, imposing demerit points on licence plate requires a change of law in the Netherlands and unwanted side-effects may occur, like an increase in fraud, driving without a licence, driving with false plates, and hit-and-run crashes.

The effect of demerit points systems can generally be enlarged by increasing the objective and subjective risks of apprehension and by also imposing demerit points for smaller offences.

Recent studies in France, Spain and Italy are no reason to reconsider the SWOV conclusion in for instance the SWOV Fact sheet Demerit points systems. As the starting conditions are different, the positive (short term) effects of a demerit points system that have been reported in France, Italy and Spain will not necessarily be the same in the Netherlands. The enforcement level in the Netherlands has been relatively high for years and seat belt use and drink-driving have also been at a more positive level than in other countries. The safety benefits that these countries have reported for the combination of a demerit points system and enforcement are therefore not likely to occur in the Netherlands after only the introduction of a demerit points system.